Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation.

OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). RESULTS: We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. CONCLUSION: The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.

Differences in acoustic features of cough by pneumonia severity in patients with COVID-19: a cross-sectional study

Background Acute respiratory syndrome due to coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is characterised by heterogeneous levels of disease severity. It is not necessarily apparent whether a patient will develop a severe disease or not. This cross-sectional study explores whether acoustic properties of the cough sound of patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the illness caused by SARS-CoV-2, correlate with their disease and pneumonia severity, with the aim of identifying patients with a severe disease. Methods Voluntary cough sounds were recorded using a smartphone in 70 COVID-19 patients within the first 24 h of their hospital arrival, between April 2020 and May 2021. Based on gas exchange abnormalities, patients were classified as mild, moderate, or severe. Time- and frequency-based variables were obtained from each cough effort and analysed using a linear mixed-effects modelling approach. Results Records from 62 patients (37% female) were eligible for inclusion in the analysis, with mild, moderate, and severe groups consisting of 31, 14 and 17 patients respectively. 5 of the parameters examined were found to be significantly different in the cough of patients at different disease levels of severity, with a further 2 parameters found to be affected differently by the disease severity in men and women. Conclusions We suggest that all these differences reflect the progressive pathophysiological alterations occurring in the respiratory system of COVID-19 patients, and potentially would provide an easy and cost-effective way to initially stratify patients, identifying those with more severe disease, and thereby most effectively allocate healthcare resources.

Predictors and changes of physical activity in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Different clinical predictors of physical activity (PA) have been described in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but studies are lacking evaluating the potential role of muscle strength and anxiety and depression symptoms in PA limitation. Moreover, little is known about the impact of changes in PA in the course of the disease. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between baseline PA and a wide range of variables in IPF, to assess its longitudinal changes at 12 months and its impact on progression free-survival. METHODS: PA was assessed by accelerometer and physiological, clinical, psychological factors and health-related quality of life were evaluated in subjects with IPF at baseline and at 12 month follow-up. Predictors of PA were determined at baseline, evolution of PA parameters was described and the prognostic role of PA evolution was also established. RESULTS: Forty participants with IPF were included and 22 completed the follow-up. At baseline, subjects performed 5765 (3442) daily steps and spent 64 (44) minutes/day in moderate to vigorous PA. Multivariate regression models showed that at baseline, a lower six-minute walked distance, lower quadriceps strength (QMVC), and a higher depression score in the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale were associated to lower daily step number. In addition, being in (Gender-Age-Physiology) GAP III stage, having a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and lower QMVC or maximum inspiratory pressure were factors associated with sedentary behaviour. Adjusted for age, gender and forced vital capacity (FVC) (%pred.) a lower progression-free survival was evidenced in those subjects that decreased PA compared to those that maintained, or even increased it, at 12 months [HR 12.1 (95% CI, 1.9-78.8); p = 0.009]. CONCLUSION: Among a wide range of variables, muscle strength and depression symptoms have a predominant role in PA in IPF patients. Daily PA behaviour and its evolution should be considered in IPF clinical assessment and as a potential complementary indicator of disease prognosis.

Absence of relevant clinical effects of SARS-COV-2 on the affinity of hemoglobin for O2 in patients with COVID-19.

Pulmonary involvement in COVID-19 is frequently associated with alterations in oxygenation. The arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) is the most clinically used variable to assess such oxygenation, since it decisively influences the oxygen transported by hemoglobin (expressed by its percentage of saturation, SaO2). However, two recent studies conducted respectively in silico and using omic techniques in red blood cells of COVID-19 patients have suggested that SARS-CoV-2 could decrease the affinity of oxygen for the hemoglobin (which would imply that PaO2 would overestimate SaO2), and also reduce the amount of this carrier molecule. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate this hypothesis in blood samples from COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Blood gases of all COVID-19 patients performed in our laboratory in two months were included, as well as those from two control groups: synchronous patients with negative PCR for SARS-CoV-2 (SCG) and a historical group (HCG). Both SaO2 and venous saturations (SvO2) measured by cooximetry (COX) were compared separately with those calculated using the Kelman (K), Severinghaus (SV) and Siggaard-Andersen (SA) equations in each group. RESULTS: Measured and calculated SaO2 and SvO2 were practically equivalent in all groups. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) for SaO2 in COVID-19 were 0.993 for COX-K and 0.992 for both COX-SV and COX-SA; being 0.995 for SvO2 for either COX-K, COX-SV or COX-SA. Hemoglobin and ferritin were slightly higher in COVID-19 compared to SCG and HCG (hemoglobin, p < 0.001 for both; ferritin, p < 0.05 for SCG and p < 0.001 for HCG). CONCLUSION: Under clinical conditions SARS-CoV-2 does not have an appreciable influence on the affinity of oxygen for the hemoglobin, nor on the levels of this carrier molecule. Therefore, PaO2 is a good marker of blood oxygenation also in COVID-19.

La afectación pulmonar por COVID-19 se asocia frecuentemente con alteraciones en la oxigenación. La presión parcial arterial de oxígeno (PaO2) es la variable más utilizada clínicamente para valorar dicha oxigenación, ya que influye decisivamente en el oxígeno transportado por la hemoglobina (expresado por porcentaje de saturación, SaO2). Sin embargo, dos estudios recientes realizados respectivamente in silico y mediante técnicas ómicas en hematíes de pacientes han sugerido que SARS-CoV-2 podría disminuir la afinidad del oxígeno por la hemoglobina (lo que implicaría que la PaO2 sobrevaloraría la SaO2 real), e incluso reduciría la cantidad de esta molécula transportadora. OBJETIVO: Evaluar dicha hipótesis en muestras gasométricas de pacientes con COVID-19. MÉTODOS: Se incluyeron las gasometrías de todos los pacientes con COVID-19 realizadas en nuestro laboratorio, así como las de dos grupos control: pacientes sincrónicos con PCR negativa (GCS) y grupo histórico (GCH). Se compararon por separado las SaO2 y saturaciones venosas (SvO2), medidas por cooximetría (COX) con las calculadas mediante las ecuaciones de Kelman (K), Severinghaus (SV) y Siggaard-Andersen (SA) en cada grupo. RESULTADOS: Las cifras de SaO2 y SvO2 medidas y calculadas fueron prácticamente superponibles en todos los grupos. Así, los coeficientes de correlación intraclase (CCI) en COVID-19 para SaO2 fueron 0,993 en COX-K y 0,992 en COX-SV y COX-SA; siendo 0,995 para SvO2 tanto en COX-K como en COX-SV y COX-SA. La hemoglobina y la ferritina resultaron algo superiores en el grupo COVID-19 respecto de GCS y GCH (hemoglobina, p < 0,001 en ambos; ferritina, p < 0,05 para GCS y p < 0,001 para GCH). CONCLUSIONES: En condiciones clínicas, el SARS-CoV-2 no influye de forma apreciable en la afinidad del oxígeno por la hemoglobina, ni tampoco en los niveles de esta última. Por tanto, la PaO2 es un buen marcador de oxigenación sanguínea también en COVID-19.

Absence of Relevant Clinical Effects of SARS-COV-2 on the Affinity of Hemoglobin for O2 in Patients with COVID-19. / Ausencia de efectos clínicos destacables del SARS-CoV-2 sobre la afinidad de la hemoglobina por el O2 en pacientes con COVID-19.

Pulmonary involvement in COVID-19 is frequently associated with alterations in oxygenation. The arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) is the most clinically used variable to assess such oxygenation, since it decisively influences the oxygen transported by hemoglobin (expressed by its percentage of saturation, SaO2). However, two recent studies conducted respectively in silico and using omic techniques in red blood cells of COVID-19 patients have suggested that SARS-CoV-2 could decrease the affinity of oxygen for the hemoglobin (which would imply that PaO2 would overestimate SaO2), and also reduce the amount of this carrier molecule. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate this hypothesis in blood samples from COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Blood gases of all COVID-19 patients performed in our laboratory in two months were included, as well as those from two control groups: synchronous patients with negative PCR for SARS-CoV-2 (SCG) and a historical group (HCG). Both SaO2 and venous saturations (SvO2) measured by cooximetry (COX) were compared separately with those calculated using the Kelman (K), Severinghaus (SV) and Siggaard-Andersen (SA) equations in each group. RESULTS: Measured and calculated SaO2 and SvO2 were practically equivalent in all groups. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) for SaO2 in COVID-19 were 0.993 for COX-K and 0.992 for both COX-SV and COX-SA; being 0.995 for SvO2 for either COX-K, COX-SV or COX-SA. Hemoglobin and ferritin were slightly higher in COVID-19 compared to SCG and HCG (hemoglobin, p < 0.001 for both; ferritin, p < 0.05 for SCG and p < 0.001 for HCG). CONCLUSION: Under clinical conditions SARS-CoV-2 does not have an appreciable influence on the affinity of oxygen for the hemoglobin, nor on the levels of this carrier molecule. Therefore, PaO2 is a good marker of blood oxygenation also in COVID-19.

Incidence of pulmonary embolism in patients with non-invasive respiratory support during COVID-19 outbreak.

While the incidence of thrombotic complications in critically ill patients is very high, in patients under non-invasive respiratory support (NIS) is still unknown. The specific incidence of thrombotic events in each of the clinical scenarios within the broad spectrum of severity of COVID-19, is not clearly established, and this has not allowed the implementation of thromboprophylaxis or anticoagulation for routine care in COVID-19. Patients admitted in a semi-critical unit treated initially with NIS, especially Continuous-Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP), were included in the study. The cumulative incidence of pulmonary embolism was analyzed and compared between patients with good response to NIS and patients with clinical deterioration that required orotracheal intubation. 93 patients were included and 16% required mechanical ventilation (MV) after the NIS. The crude cumulative incidence of the PE was 14% (95%, CI 8-22) for all group. In patients that required orotracheal intubation and MV, the cumulative incidence was significantly higher [33% (95%, CI 16-58)] compared to patients that continued with non-invasive support [11% (CI 5-18)] (Log-Rank, p = 0.013). Patients that required mechanical ventilation were at higher risk of PE for a HR of 4.3 (95%CI 1.2-16). In conclusion, cumulative incidence of PE is remarkably higher in critically patients with a potential impact in COVID-19 evolution. In this context, patients under NIS are a very high-risk group for developing PE without a clear strategy regarding thromboprophylaxis.